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Week 16 Playoff Picture

Posted by ultimatefbexperience on January 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

NFC.    All five playoff teams are settled.  The only unsettled drama is who will be the Central Division champ.  Buffalo and Rural Hall are tied and both favored in their regular season finales.  If both win or both lose, the title goes to Buffalo because of a better record in games played within their division.


Gashouse (6-9)  at  Rural Hall (12-3)  -  Line: 10th AD by 12

Marietta [7-8]  at  Buffalo (12-3)  -  Line: Bills by 7


AFC.    This is a bit more complicated.  The East Division crown and both wild card spots are on the line with this week's games.


Albany (9-6)  at  Florida (2-13)  -  Line: Wolfpack by 3

Fog City (13-2)  at  Spokane (8-7)  -  Line: Sea Dogs by 3

Tampa Bay (9-6)  at  Chantilly (1-14)  -  Black Sheep by 4

Macungie (9-6)  at  Frostburg (10-5)  -  Retrievers by 6


As for the East title, a Frostburg win this week makes the analysis easy.  A Macungie win combined with a Tampa Bay loss would give the division to Frostburg based on having a better division record than Macungie.  A  Macungie win and a Tampa Bay win would create a three way tie, in which case Tampa Bay has the advantage based on best head-to-head record among the three teams (Tampa swept both games against Macungie this year).


Wild Card:  I believe Spokane still has a glimmer of hope to get to the post season. They need Frostburg to win, and Tampa Bay to lose.  If I am reading the NFL tie breaker rules correctly, this scenario would make Albany and Spokane the wild cards.


Any other scenario looks like it probably comes down to conference won-loss records.  Here is how all of those teams currently stand in that category:  Frostburg 8-3,  Tampa Bay 7-4,  Macungie 6-5,  Spokane 6-5,  Albany 5-6.  Albany needs a win and a Tampa Bay loss. 


There are other scenarios but this much already hurts my head puzzling together.  Here are the NFL tiebreaker rules if anyone wants to double check me. 

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

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